stock-analysis

Stock Analysis (v5.0)

Analyze US stocks and cryptocurrencies using Yahoo Finance data. Includes portfolio management, crypto support, and periodic analysis.

Quick Start

IMPORTANT: Pass ONLY the stock ticker symbol(s) as arguments. Do NOT add extra text, headers, or formatting in the command.

Analyze a single ticker:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py AAPL
uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py MSFT --output json

Compare multiple tickers:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py

Cryptocurrency Analysis (v5.0)

Analyze top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap:

Supported Cryptos: BTC-USD, ETH-USD, BNB-USD, SOL-USD, XRP-USD, ADA-USD, DOGE-USD, AVAX-USD, DOT-USD, MATIC-USD, LINK-USD, ATOM-USD, UNI-USD, LTC-USD, BCH-USD, XLM-USD, ALGO-USD, VET-USD, FIL-USD, NEAR-USD

Crypto Analysis Dimensions:

• Market cap (large/mid/small classification)
• Category (Smart Contract L1, DeFi, Payment, etc.)
• BTC correlation (30-day)
• Momentum (RSI, price range)
• Market context (VIX, general market regime)

Portfolio Management (v5.0)

Create and manage portfolios with mixed assets (stocks + crypto):

Portfolio Storage: ~/.clawdbot/skills/stock-analysis/portfolios.json

Portfolio Analysis (v5.0)

Analyze all assets in a portfolio with optional period returns:

Portfolio Summary includes:

• Total cost, current value, P&L
• Period return (if specified)
• Concentration warnings (>30% in single asset)
• Recommendation summary (BUY/HOLD/SELL counts)

Examples:

• ✅ CORRECT: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py BAC
• ✅ CORRECT: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py BTC-USD
• ❌ WRONG: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py === BANK OF AMERICA (BAC) - Q4 2025 EARNINGS ===
• ❌ WRONG: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/analyze_stock.py "Bank of America"

Use the ticker symbol only (e.g., BAC, not "Bank of America"). For crypto, use the -USD suffix (e.g., BTC-USD).

Analysis Components

The script evaluates eight key dimensions:

1. Earnings Surprise (30% weight): Actual vs expected EPS, revenue beats/misses
2. Fundamentals (20% weight): P/E ratio, profit margins, revenue growth, debt levels
3. Analyst Sentiment (20% weight): Consensus ratings, price target vs current price
4. Historical Patterns (10% weight): Past earnings reactions, volatility
5. Market Context (10% weight): VIX, SPY/QQQ trends, market regime
6. Sector Performance (15% weight): Stock vs sector comparison, sector trends
7. Momentum (15% weight): RSI, 52-week range, volume, relative strength
8. Sentiment Analysis (10% weight): Fear/Greed Index, short interest, VIX term structure, insider trading, put/call ratio

Sentiment Sub-Indicators:

• Fear & Greed Index (CNN): Contrarian signal (extreme fear = buy opportunity, extreme greed = caution)
• Short Interest: High shorts + squeeze potential = bullish; justified shorts = bearish
• VIX Term Structure: Contango = complacency/bullish; backwardation = stress/bearish
• Insider Activity: Net buying/selling from SEC Form 4 filings (90-day window)
• Put/Call Ratio: High ratio = excessive fear/bullish; low ratio = complacency/bearish

Weights auto-normalize if some components unavailable.

Special Timing Checks:

• Pre-earnings warning (< 14 days): Recommends HOLD instead of BUY
• Post-earnings spike detection (> 15% in 5 days): Flags "gains priced in"
• Overbought conditions (RSI > 70 + near 52w high): Reduces confidence

Timing Warnings & Risk Flags

The script detects high-risk scenarios:

Earnings Timing

• Pre-Earnings Period: If earnings < 14 days away, BUY signals become HOLD
• Post-Earnings Spike: If stock up > 15% in 5 days after earnings, warns "gains may be priced in"

Technical Risk

• Overbought Conditions: RSI > 70 + near 52-week high = high-risk entry

Market Risk

• High VIX: Market fear (VIX > 30) reduces confidence in BUY signals
• Risk-Off Mode (v4.0.0): When safe-havens (GLD, TLT, UUP) rise together, reduces BUY confidence by 30%
  • Detects flight to safety across gold, treasuries, and USD
  • Triggers when GLD ≥ +2%, TLT ≥ +1%, UUP ≥ +1% (5-day change)

Sector Risk

• Sector Weakness: Stock may look good but sector is rotating out

Geopolitical Risk (v4.0.0)

The script now scans breaking news (last 24h) for crisis keywords and automatically flags affected stocks:

• Taiwan Conflict: Semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, TSM, INTC, etc.) → 30% confidence penalty
• China Tensions: Tech/Consumer (AAPL, QCOM, NKE, SBUX, etc.) → 30% confidence penalty
• Russia-Ukraine: Energy/Materials (XOM, CVX, MOS, CF, etc.) → 30% confidence penalty
• Middle East: Oil/Defense (XOM, LMT, RTX, etc.) → 30% confidence penalty
• Banking Crisis: Financials (JPM, BAC, WFC, C, etc.) → 30% confidence penalty

If a ticker is not in the affected list but its sector is exposed, applies a 15% confidence penalty.

Example Alert:

Breaking News Alerts (v4.0.0)

• Scans Google News RSS for crisis keywords (war, recession, sanctions, disasters, etc.)
• Displays up to 2 breaking news alerts in caveats (last 24 hours)
• Uses 1-hour cache to avoid excessive API calls

Output Format

Default (text): Concise buy/hold/sell signal with 3-5 bullet points and caveats

JSON: Structured data with scores, metrics, and raw data for further analysis

Limitations

• Data freshness: Yahoo Finance may lag 15-20 minutes
• Sentiment data staleness:
  • Short interest data lags ~2 weeks (FINRA reporting schedule)
  • Insider trades may lag filing by 2-3 days
  • VIX term structure only updates during futures trading hours
• Breaking news limitations (v4.0.0):
  • Google News RSS may lag by 15-60 minutes
  • Keyword matching may have false positives/negatives
  • Does not analyze sentiment, only detects keywords
  • 1-hour cache means alerts may be slightly stale
• Missing data: Not all stocks have analyst coverage, options chains, or complete fundamentals
• Execution time: 3-5s per stock with async parallel fetching and caching (shared indicators cached for 1h)
• Disclaimer: All outputs include prominent "not financial advice" warning
• US markets only: Non-US tickers may have incomplete data

Error Handling

The script gracefully handles:

• Invalid tickers → Clear error message
• Missing analyst data → Signal based on available metrics only
• API failures → Retry with exponential backoff, fail after 3 attempts