product-discovery

❌ FORBIDDEN:
- "Users probably want X" (assumption without data)
- "Our competitor has X, so we need it too" (copycat without validation)
- "The CEO thinks we should build X" (HiPPO without evidence)
- "It's obvious users need X" (intuition without validation)
 
✅ REQUIRED:
- "5 out of 8 interviewed users mentioned X as a pain point"
- "Analytics show 60% of users abandon at step 3"
- "Prototype test: 7/10 users completed task successfully"
- "Survey (n=500): 45% rated feature as 'must have'"

❌ FORBIDDEN:
- "We talked to 2 users and they loved the idea"
- "One customer requested this feature"
- "Based on a quick chat with sales..."
 
✅ REQUIRED:
| Segment | Interviews | Key Finding |
|---------|------------|-------------|
| Power Users | 6 | 5/6 struggle with X |
| New Users | 5 | 4/5 drop off at onboarding |
| Churned | 5 | 3/5 cited missing feature Y |
 
Minimum per segment: 5 interviews
Confidence increases with more interviews

❌ FORBIDDEN:
- "Users will like the new design" (not falsifiable)
- "This will improve engagement" (no success criteria)
- "The feature will be useful" (vague)
 
✅ REQUIRED:
| Assumption | Test | Success Criteria | Result |
|------------|------|------------------|--------|
| Users will complete onboarding in new flow | Prototype test with 10 users | >70% completion | TBD |
| Users prefer visual search | A/B test | >10% lift in conversions | TBD |
| Price point is acceptable | Landing page test | >3% conversion | TBD |

Product Manager → Defines outcomes, owns roadmap
Designer        → Explores solutions, tests usability
Engineer        → Assesses feasibility, proposes technical solutions

## 1. Customer Interviews (Weekly)
- Schedule 3-5 interviews per week minimum
- Mix of current users, churned users, prospects
- Focus on understanding problems, not pitching solutions
- Record and share insights with team
 
## 2. Assumption Testing (Weekly)
- Identify riskiest assumptions about solutions
- Design quick tests (prototypes, landing pages, fake doors)
- Run experiments with real users
- Measure results against success criteria
 
## 3. Opportunity Mapping (Ongoing)
- Build opportunity solution tree
- Map customer needs to potential solutions
- Prioritize based on impact and feasibility
- Update as you learn

Discovery (What to Build)          Delivery (How to Build It)
├─ Customer interviews             ├─ Sprint planning
├─ Prototype testing               ├─ Development
├─ Assumption validation           ├─ QA testing
├─ Market research                 ├─ Deployment
└─ Opportunity assessment          └─ Post-launch monitoring

Key difference: Discovery reduces risk BEFORE committing to build

## 1. Problem Definition
**What problem are we solving?**
- Be specific and measurable
- Validate it's a real problem (not assumed)
 
## 2. Target Market
**For whom are we solving this problem?**
- Define specific user segments
- Size the addressable market (TAM/SAM/SOM)
 
## 3. Opportunity Size
**How big is the opportunity?**
- Revenue potential
- User growth potential
- Strategic value
 
## 4. Success Metrics
**How will we measure success?**
- Leading indicators (usage, engagement)
- Lagging indicators (revenue, retention)
- Define targets upfront
 
## 5. Alternative Solutions
**What alternatives exist today?**
- Direct competitors
- Indirect solutions
- Current user workarounds
 
## 6. Our Advantage
**Why are we best suited to solve this?**
- Unique capabilities
- Market position
- Technical advantages
 
## 7. Strategic Fit
**Why now? Why us?**
- Market timing
- Strategic alignment
- Resource availability
 
## 8. Dependencies
**What do we need to succeed?**
- Technical dependencies
- Partnership requirements
- Regulatory considerations
 
## 9. Risks
**What could go wrong?**
- Market risk (will anyone want it?)
- Execution risk (can we build it?)
- Monetization risk (will they pay?)
 
## 10. Cost of Delay
**What happens if we don't build this?**
- Competitive disadvantage
- Lost revenue
- Market opportunity window

High Value, Low Effort  → Do First (Quick Wins)
High Value, High Effort → Plan Strategically (Big Bets)
Low Value, Low Effort   → Do Later (Fill Gaps)
Low Value, High Effort  → Don't Do (Money Pit)

## Generative Research (What problems exist?)
Use when: Starting new product area, exploring unknown space
Methods:
- Ethnographic field studies
- Contextual inquiry
- Diary studies
- Open-ended interviews
 
## Evaluative Research (Does our solution work?)
Use when: Testing specific solutions, validating designs
Methods:
- Usability testing
- Prototype testing
- A/B testing
- Concept testing
 
## Quantitative Research (How much? How many?)
Use when: Need statistical validation, measuring impact
Methods:
- Surveys
- Analytics analysis
- A/B experiments
- Market sizing
 
## Qualitative Research (Why? How?)
Use when: Understanding motivations, uncovering insights
Methods:
- User interviews
- Focus groups
- Customer advisory boards
- User observation

## Preparation
- Define research goals and hypotheses
- Create interview guide (but stay flexible)
- Recruit right participants (6-8 per segment)
- Schedule 45-60 min sessions
 
## During Interview
✓ Ask open-ended questions ("Tell me about...")
✓ Follow up with "Why?" 5 times to get to root cause
✓ Listen more than talk (80/20 rule)
✓ Ask about past behavior, not future hypotheticals
✓ Look for workarounds and pain points
✓ Record and take notes
 
✗ Don't ask leading questions
✗ Don't pitch your solution
✗ Don't ask "Would you use X?" (people lie)
✗ Don't multi-task while interviewing
 
## Example Questions
- "Walk me through the last time you [did task]"
- "What's most frustrating about [current solution]?"
- "How are you solving this problem today?"
- "What would make [task] easier for you?"
- "Tell me more about that..."

## When to Survey
✓ Validate findings from qualitative research
✓ Measure satisfaction or sentiment at scale
✓ Prioritize features (Kano surveys)
✓ Segment users by behavior/needs
 
## Survey Design
- Keep it short (<10 min to complete)
- One question per screen on mobile
- Mix question types (multiple choice, scale, open-ended)
- Avoid leading or biased questions
- Test survey with 5 people before sending
 
## Question Types
- Multiple choice → Segmentation, categorization
- Likert scale (1-5) → Satisfaction, importance
- Open-ended → Qualitative insights
- Ranking → Prioritization
- NPS (0-10) → Loyalty measurement
 
## Distribution
- In-app surveys (high response, biased to engaged users)
- Email surveys (broader reach, lower response)
- Incentivize thoughtful responses ($10 gift card, early access)
- Follow up with interviews for interesting responses

## AI Tools for Discovery
- **Insight synthesis** — AI analyzes interview transcripts, identifies patterns
- **Synthetic personas** — AI-generated user proxies for rapid testing
- **Market intelligence** — AI tracks competitor moves, pricing changes
- **Survey analysis** — Automated sentiment analysis, theme extraction
- **Trend detection** — AI identifies emerging market trends early
 
## Examples
- Crayon → Competitive intelligence automation
- Glimpse → Trend detection from web data
- Delve AI → Automated persona creation
- Attest → AI-powered survey insights
- Quantilope → Machine learning research automation
 
## Best Practices
✓ Use AI to scale research, not replace human insight
✓ Validate AI findings with real user conversations
✓ Combine AI analysis with qualitative depth
✗ Don't rely solely on synthetic users
✗ Don't skip talking to real customers

## Modern Approach
- Discovery is embedded in every sprint, not a phase
- Weekly user touchpoints (interviews, tests, feedback)
- Rapid experimentation (dozens of tests running)
- Fast pivots based on evidence (days, not months)
 
## Team Structure
- Product trios own discovery for their area
- Centralized research team supports (tools, methods)
- Customer success shares feedback loop
- Data analysts provide quantitative insights
 
## Cadence
- Weekly: Customer interviews, prototype tests
- Bi-weekly: Opportunity review, assumption validation
- Monthly: Market analysis, competitive review
- Quarterly: Strategic discovery (new markets, big bets)

        OUTCOME (Business goal)
             |
    ┌────────┴────────┐
    │                 │
OPPORTUNITY 1    OPPORTUNITY 2
    │                 │
    ├─ Solution A     ├─ Solution C
    ├─ Solution B     └─ Solution D
    └─ Solution C

## Step 1: Define Outcome
Start with measurable business outcome
Example: "Increase Day 30 retention from 20% to 30%"
 
## Step 2: Map Opportunities
Discover customer needs/pain points through research
Example: "Users don't understand core features"
 
## Step 3: Generate Solutions
For each opportunity, brainstorm multiple solutions
Example:
- Better onboarding tutorial
- In-app tooltips
- Interactive product tour
 
## Step 4: Test Assumptions
For each solution, identify riskiest assumption and test
Example: "Users will complete a 5-step tutorial"
Test: Build simple prototype, test with 10 users
 
## Step 5: Compare Solutions
Use evidence to choose best path forward
Build what tests validate, discard what fails

✓ Visualizes multiple paths to outcome
✓ Prevents jumping to first solution
✓ Encourages broad exploration before narrowing
✓ Documents why decisions were made
✓ Keeps team aligned on priorities