Market Opportunity Analysis
Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.
Use this skill when
- Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows
- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis
Do not use this skill when
- The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis
- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
Instructions
- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
- Provide actionable steps and verification.
- If detailed examples are required, open
resources/implementation-playbook.md.
What This Command Does
This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:
- Define the target market and customer segments
- Gather relevant market data
- Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
- Validate with top-down analysis
- Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters
- Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)
- Present findings in a formatted report
Instructions for Claude
When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
Step 1: Gather Context
Ask the user for essential information:
- Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?
- Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
- Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
- Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)
- Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)
Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill
The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:
- Bottom-up calculation frameworks
- Top-down validation approaches
- Industry-specific templates
- Data source recommendations
Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis
For B2B/SaaS:
- Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
- Estimate number of companies in each segment
- Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
- Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)
For Consumer/Marketplace:
- Define target user demographics
- Estimate total addressable users
- Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
- Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency
For Transactions/E-commerce:
- Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
- Determine take rate or margin
- Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate
Step 4: Gather Market Data
Use available tools to research:
- WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
- Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates
- Document assumptions clearly
Recommended data sources (from skill):
- Government data (Census, BLS)
- Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
- Public company filings (10-K reports)
- Trade associations
- Academic research
Step 5: Top-Down Validation
Validate bottom-up calculation:
- Find total market category size from research
- Apply geographic filters
- Apply segment/product filters
- Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)
If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.
Step 6: Calculate SAM
Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:
- Geographic: Regions actually serviceable
- Product Capability: Features needed to serve
- Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt
- Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert
Formula:
Step 7: Estimate SOM
Calculate realistic obtainable market share:
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
- Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
- Year 5: 4-6% of SAM
Consider:
- Competitive intensity
- Available resources (funding, team)
- Go-to-market effectiveness
- Differentiation strength
Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report
Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:
Section 1: Executive Summary
- Market opportunity in one paragraph
- TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers
Section 2: Market Definition
- Problem being solved
- Target customer profile
- Geographic scope
- Time horizon
Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis
- Customer segment breakdown
- Segment sizing with sources
- TAM calculation with formula
- Assumptions documented
Section 4: Top-Down Validation
- Industry category and size
- Filter application
- Validated TAM
- Comparison to bottom-up
Section 5: SAM Calculation
- Filters applied with rationale
- SAM formula and result
- Segment-level breakdown
Section 6: SOM Projection
- Market share assumptions
- Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
- Customer count implications
- Revenue projections
Section 7: Market Growth
- Industry growth rate (CAGR)
- Key growth drivers
- 5-year market evolution
Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks
- Public company comparisons
- Customer count validation
- Competitive context
Section 9: Investment Thesis
- Market opportunity assessment
- Key positives and risks
- Venture-scale potential
- Next steps
Step 9: Save Report
Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
- Suggest filename:
market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md
- Use Write tool to create file
- Confirm file location with user
Tips for Best Results
Do:
- Start with bottom-up (most credible)
- Always triangulate with top-down
- Cite all data sources
- Document every assumption
- Be conservative on SOM
- Compare to public company benchmarks
- Explain any data gaps or limitations
Don't:
- Rely solely on top-down
- Cherry-pick optimistic data
- Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
- Mix methodologies inappropriately
- Ignore competitive context
- Skip validation steps
Example Usage
Integration with Other Commands
This command pairs well with:
/financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model/business-case - Include market sizing in business case
Notes
- Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
- Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
- Update annually as market evolves
- Conservative estimates build credibility with investors
Limitations
- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.
- Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.
- Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.